Strategy and Portfolio Optimization

Patient-level forecasting for four drugs with 1B+ in total revenue

A top-10 global pharmaceutical company had multiple drugs in its Immunology Business Unit indicated for both acute and prophylactic treatments, including the market-leading therapy with $1B+ in annual revenue. They needed to better understand the impact of new entrants across the complete product portfolio.

Viscadia was asked to design, build, and deploy forecasting platforms that addressed the end-to-end forecasting needs of the full portfolio, including short-term evaluations, long-range planning, market forecasting, and patient analytics.

Challenge

Patient-Level Data Capture

• Formulating business rules for translating raw patient data into key metrics such as new starts, continuing patients, drops, and more

Evolving Patient Preference

• Modeling for a changing treatment paradigm: addressing migration of a considerable patient population from acute treatment to prophylactic therapies

Portfolio Management

• Managing evolving forecasting needs for all the drugs in the portfolio, with each drug located at a different position in its respective life cycle

Approach

Patient Flow Modeling Design

• Constructed a comprehensive patient flow model, capturing complex fulfillment dynamics with an intuitive UI design

Cannibalization Matrix

• Created a cannibalization matrix to track the movement of patients across different products and segments in the market with new product launches

Portfolio Management

• Managed client’s complete portfolio through dynamic, individual forecasting models that cater to different cross-functional needs

Market Modeling

• Designed and built an integrated market forecast model to comprehensively evaluate the overall market, with a particular focus on the client’s portfolio and the associated interplay between products

Data Extraction and Deep Dives

• Built capability to streamline data extraction and processing from multiple sources to ensure consistency
• Informed key forecast drivers such as persistency, titration curves, and compliance, with the ability to update them in real-time
• Performed deep dives into patient-level data to generate valuable new business KPIs

Outcome

End Deliverables

• Patient flow model with a comprehensive set of insights, analytics, and output views
• Market forecast model supporting the evolving market landscape with a view of patient switches and market share movement

Key Highlights

• Incorporate trends from actual patient-level data into forecast planning and goal setting
• Provided constant support through multiple planning and budget cycles, helping turn around updates and refinements in a time-sensitive manner
• Designed and built a custom event palette in the market model to help configure events using either market research-driven insights or custom business inputs with scalability

Accelerated Timeline

• Reduced cycle time for data updates by 50% through automation and quality control management to ensure accurate forecasting
• Increased confidence in forecast assumptions by employing rigorous patient data analytics to test and validate business hypotheses
• Empowered leadership to seamlessly track the entire market and portfolio with real-time insights on its share of business