Global Launch Forecast Modeling

Global launch forecast planning for an oncology asset – a successful establishment of robust forecast capabilities across regions, enabling smooth launch forecast planning

A large global pharmaceutical company wanted to better understand the product potential of a HER3 directed ADC for the treatment of patients with metastatic NSCLC

Viscadia was tasked with designing and building custom forecast platforms and processes catering to the U.S., EU5, Japan, and China to support cross-functional stakeholder objectives leading up to its launch

Challenge

Complex Patient Segmentation Based on Treatment History Deal Structures

• Tracking patients across multiple lines of therapy
• Segmenting eligible patients based on treatment history and the availability of inputs
• Mapping patient opportunity based on patient journey across the lines of therapy

Lack of Standard Forecast Model and Process Across Regions

• Different forecasting processes across geographies
• Multiple disconnected forecast narratives at the regional and global HQ level
• Incorporating region-specific nuances such as pricing and patient access

Growing Need for a Comprehensive Forecast Storyboard

• Consolidating forecast models’ regions to form a clean forecast storyboard
• Simulating several what-if forecast scenarios across geographies

Approach

Gap Analysis

• Conducted in-depth interviews with global and regional stakeholders.
• Audited literature and deep dived into existing forecast models

Patient Journey and Segmentation

• Designed patient segments to account for patients’ treatment choice in each line of therapy.
• Aligned treatment eligibility and patient opportunity segments

Regional Forecasting Nuances

• Collaborated with stakeholders to incorporate regional nuances into the forecast model flow
• Developed a comprehensive forecasting framework that could scale across regions

Market Share Modeling and Event Impact

• Designed a market share modeling framework by calibrating inputs from the physician research
• Modeled event impact due to competitor launches at the segment level

Pipeline Forecast Model and Global Forecast Aggregator

• Designed and built patient flow forecast models for each region
• Built a global forecast model aggregator for the headquarters to assimilate forecasts from different regions

Forecast Analytics and Storyboards

• Automated the workflow of consolidating regional forecast scenarios into a single storyboard
• Designed clear, comprehensive, and actionable forecast summaries for executive decision-making

Outcome

End Deliverables

• Viscadia Global Forecast Model (For headquarters)
• Viscadia Regional Forecast Models (For individual countries)
• Different aggregator models for EU and Global teams
• User guide for stakeholder training

Key Highlights

• Streamlined the global forecasting process through deep collaboration
• Established new forecasting infrastructure and facilitated stakeholder onboarding
• Led forecast stakeholders from 8 global regions towards forecasting best practices
• Conducted live workshops to drive adoption and support for the new forecasting platform

Impact

• A standardized framework across geographies equipped the headquarters leadership to go to market with more forecasting confidence
• Successfully established robust forecast capabilities across regions and enabled smooth launch forecast planning
• Patient segmentation approach built into the project set the tone for future demand studies