Early-Stage Demand Research

A global pharmaceutical company wanted to understand the market potential for a new therapy in a highly competitive oncology space

Viscadia was asked to design and conduct an early-stage demand study in key global markets to support an updated forecast and a go/no-go decision regarding further clinical development.

Challenge

Significant Clinical Uncertainty

• Demonstrating clinical benefit vs. SOC has been difficult, as illustrated by several recent Phase II and Phase III clinical trial failures

Crowded Market with Several New Competitors

• A large number of potential entrants are incorporating various new treatment modalities
• Timing and order of entry may limit market potential for later entrants’ differentiation vs. established therapies

Strategic Importance

• Category with a large patient population and high unmet need in second and later lines of treatment

Approach

Product Conjoint Design

• For eligible patients, investigating the sensitivity of results to variations in clinical performance for new products

Primary Markets Research

• N=400 online interviews conducted across key geographies in the US, EU, and Japan. For eligible patients, investigating the sensitivity of results to variations in clinical performance for new products
• N=20 follow-up qualitative interviews to deep-dive into the whys underlying oncologists’ prescribing decisions

Forecast Update

• Incorporated demand study outcomes to update the revenue projections for the treatment under consideration

Post-Survey Calibration

• Ensured shares accurately reflected current market dynamics by adjusting for HCP overstatement in anticipated prescribing

Developed a Forecast Platform

• Customized platform for the product opportunity that allowed for dynamic, comprehensive evaluation of key performance drivers, and enabled scenario comparison and contrasting

Outcome

End Deliverables

• Global PowerPoint report highlighting key analyses and insights for each geography
• An Excel-based market simulator enabled the client to conduct sensitivity analyses, estimate product attribute importance scores, and investigate “what-if” scenarios across key patient segments and market conditions
• Updated global forecast

Key Highlights

• Simultaneous management of the demand study and forecast model ensured synergy, enhancing study completeness and facilitating seamless integration of outcomes into the forecast framework
• Enabled timely forecast updates to integrate into the long-range plan, driving pivotal corporate strategy decisions

Impact

• Empowered leadership to evaluate projected financial returns and make informed decisions about pursuing the asset independently or seeking strategic partnerships, ensuring optimal value creation
• Updates supported successful launch planning and played a key role in securing additional investments prior to launch
• Supported the leadership team in presenting a compelling case for continuing clinical development to executives and investors