Global Oncology Forecasting

Building forecasting capabilities for a complex oncology patient flow

A global biotechnology company wanted to forecast the market potential for its oral TKI inhibitor targeting the HER2 protein, which had been approved for an oncology indication across all major markets.

Viscadia was asked to design and build an epidemiology-based patient flow model to construct a market landscape and assess product potential across 22 markets worldwide, while incorporating regional nuances specific to several key markets.

Challenge

Complex Treatment Paradigm

• Tracking patients across multiple lines of therapy
• Segmenting eligible patients based on treatment history
• Incorporating nuances critical to oncology forecasting, such as participation in clinical trials, patient warehousing, and bolus patient switching

Lack of Global Forecasting Framework

• Regional stakeholders leveraged independent forecasting processes, leading to multiple disconnected forecasting narratives
• Incorporating region-specific nuances such as affordability, patient access, seasonality, and differential SKU size

Go-To-Market Modeling

• Reconciling forecast with actual demand units post-launch
• Triangulating the demand forecast with the account-level bottom-up forecast

Approach

Patient Flow Model

• Designed and built a comprehensive patient flow forecast model, allowing in-depth tracking of patient metrics (such as naïve and experienced patients, and more) across multiple lines of therapy.

Regional Forecast Harmonization

• Engaged with stakeholders to understand strategic imperatives and developed a forecasting framework that could scale across geographies

Global Forecast Platform

• Automated the aggregation of 22 regional models with the global forecast to facilitate decision-making at headquarters

Refining Forecast Assumptions

• Performed deep dives and set up analytical processes to continuously refine key forecasting assumptions, including projections for SKU-level demand and bolus patients

Scenario Planning and Optimization

• Equipped the regional and global models with the functionality to simulate what-if scenarios, review KPIs, and assess key forecast drivers

Outcome

End Deliverables

• Viscadia Global Forecast Model (For headquarters)
• Viscadia Regional Forecast Models (For individual countries)
• Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Forecasts (For corporate planning)

Key Highlights

• Streamlined the global forecasting process through deep collaboration
• Developed new forecasting infrastructure and facilitated stakeholder onboarding
• Successfully partnered with the client to facilitate the budgeting and corporate planning process
• Advised the client on cross-functional business needs, including sales force target optimization and inventory planning

Impact

• The forecast model enabled comprehensive, intuitive evaluation of key performance indicators and helped drive stakeholder decision-making
• Established an end-to-end forecasting process, which eventually defined best practices across multiple pipeline and on-market assets
• Viscadia was selected as the overarching partner to oversee forecast data reporting, corporate planning, and commercial analytics