Pipeline Forecast

Global model for oncology condition with a complex patient flow, where the client gained unprecedented buy-in from 15 regional counterparts and global HQ.

A large global pharmaceutical company wanted to better understand the product potential of a late-stage, highly targeted pipeline drug candidate for immunotherapy. This drug was indicated for a complex, underserved therapeutic condition.

Viscadia was asked to design and build a custom forecast model spanning all global regions and accommodating key therapeutic and commercial drivers of product performance.

Challenge

Complex Patient Flow and Treatment Paradigm

• Multiple indications and lines of therapy constitute an interlinked treatment paradigm, with regional variations in physician preferences and demographic nuances

Staggered Launches,Non-Promoted Usage

• Underserved therapy area combined with multiple indications and staggered launches, leading to significant potential in non-promoted usage

Cross-Functional Stakeholder Management

• Senior management at global HQ responsible for global forecasts
• Regional stakeholders from 15 participating geographies
• Multiple third-party vendors/partners conducting supporting research

Approach

Executed In-Depth Therapy-Area Research

• Assessed therapy-area nuances, clinical and commercial drivers of product usage, and shifts in treatment paradigms driven by imminent pipeline approvals

Conducted Analog Research

• Identified and evaluated the uptake performances of recent key launches to drive uptake assumptions

Supported Design of Primary Market Research (PMR)

• Identified relevant analogs to develop a perspective on pricing and implications of the ensuing access constraints on product uptake

Developed Forecast Platform

• Customized platform for the product opportunity that allowed for dynamic, comprehensive evaluation of key performance drivers, and enabled scenario comparison and contrasting

Outcome

End Deliverables

• Standard patient flow design harmonizing variations and commonalities in forecasting approach across global regions
• A forecast platform with a comprehensive set of output views and summaries addressing cross-functional stakeholders
• An efficient interface to facilitate easy aggregation of forecast results across global regions
• Geography-specific thought leadership on prioritizing the action plan leading up to launch

Key Highlights

• Successfully collaborated and worked harmoniously alongside multiple third-party vendors
• Delivered support and leadership to stakeholders from 15 global regions across multiple time zones
• Conducted live workshops to drive adoption and support for the new forecasting platform among multiple stakeholders

Impact

• Established an end-to-end forecasting process, which eventually defined best practices across multiple pipeline assetsupdates supported successful launch planning and played a key role in securing additional investments prior to launch
• U.S. leadership gained unprecedented buy-in from all regional counterparts and Global HQ on asset potential
• Client successfully moved the asset to Phase III of clinical trials following global opportunity assessment