On-Market Product Forecast

Forecasting with higher accuracy and greater versatility in a competitive market.

A large pharmaceutical/biotechnology company wanted to better understand the product potential of an on-market, non-retail drug distributed through a limited network of specialty pharmacies and distributors in an active, competitive environment.

Viscadia was asked to build a custom forecast model that could integrate seamlessly with the client’s existing Latest Estimate (LE) process and that would also be versatile enough to support multiple stakeholders and the long-term brand planning process.

Challenge

Data Complexity

• Product and distribution model involving multiple and disparate data sources
• IntegriChain (unit demand, inventory)
• Patient data (enrollments, restarts)
• Internal (finance, ex-factory)

Market Event Modeling in Absence of Competitor Data

• Specialty (non-retail) distribution model across all competitors hindered the availability of market data, and complex market events were impacting product performance, increasing the complexity of the required modeling

Cross-functional stakeholder needs

• Sales, marketing, and finance each had distinct objectives for the model, including harmonization of the unit-demand forecast with patient enrollments

Approach

Improved User Experience

• Built an organic model with a streamlined flow, incorporating VBA-driven automation, with complete transparency and a user-friendly design

Mapped Cross-Functional Stakeholder Needs

• Identified discrete needs across sales, marketing, and finance stakeholders and created customized outputs to meet requirements

Modeled Complex Market Events

• Assimilated market research (AMUs) to understand and model multiple market events using diffusion curves

Designed Multiple Forecasting Pathways

• Created capabilities for users to choose from multiple forecasting pathways (unit demand vs. patient enrollments) that were harmonized across the platform

Embedded In-House Forecasting Palette

• Integrated a robust and transparent statistical palette (Exponential Smoothing, Holt-Winters, Box-Jenkins, etc.), resulting in improved forecast accuracy and model flexibility

Developed Forecast Platform

• Customized platform for the product allowed for dynamic, comprehensive evaluation of key performance drivers and served cross-functional stakeholder objectives

Outcome

End Deliverables

• Forecast platform with a comprehensive set of output views and summaries addressing cross-functional stakeholders
• User manual providing extensive documentation of model design and operation to facilitate easy knowledge transfer
• Executive slides to facilitate quarterly LE discussions, generated by an automated module within the model

Key Highlights

• Reduced the MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) by nearly 50% in actual vs. forecast for the new model compared to the existing model
• Dynamically modeled for five major market events occurring at different times in the forecast horizon
• Successfully enabled the forecast team to tie the revenue forecast to weekly patient enrollment targets for the sales team

Impact

• Client asked Viscadia to design and build a new model for another product within the same franchise
• Reduced workflow for quarterly LE from ~40 hours to ~8 hours
• Ne model served as the base platform for future Life Cycle Management (LCM) strategy scenario-planning exercises