Pain Management Portfolio Forecast

Designing a specialized forecast model for a pain management portfolio

An upcoming specialty pharmaceutical firm was looking to elevate its forecasting infrastructure for its pain management portfolio. Viscadia designed and built a statistical trend-based forecast platform to predict demand across different channels. While accounting for market, product, or channel-level event impacts. Furthermore, it enabled downloading essential summaries and performing comprehensive calculations quickly.

Challenge

Data Reconciliation

• Utilizing multiple sources and flavors of data to prepare the repository for the baseline trend forecast
• Lack of unified datasets to bridge payer and PBM accounts to pertinent product-contract-level mapping

Trend Forecasting

• Incorporating an integrated stand-alone data trending tool within the primary model
• Reducing the clutter around using multiple spreadsheets every time refreshing the forecast

Lack of Forecast Process

• Process to compare forecasts across Quarterly cycles to ascertain change drivers
• Unified solution to assist in both short-term and long-term forecasts for business planning

Approach

Data Triangulation

• Triangulated demand, ex-factory, and distributor data to prepare inputs for trending. Automated data processing to build a data pipeline and adjust for capture rates

Integrating Trending Tool

• Designed an integrated and robust statistical palette to generate a baseline forecast as part of the inline model, embedding it within the primary framework

Comparison Cycles for LBE

• Built in a modular fashion to visualize and draw comparisons across different forecast versions. Adjunct waterfall views to assist in compartmentalizing the deviation

Automation Capabilities

• Devised user-friendly automation in the model to enhance model usability and accessibility while not compromising the transparency of the flow

Event Modeling

• Developed a comprehensive module to weigh in the impact of key events for market, product, and contracting events and assimilated it within the model

Outcome

End Deliverables

• Pain Management Portfolio Forecast Model
• Short-term and Long-term forecasts (for better planning)
• Infrastructure to process and crunch rebate data for use within the primary framework to inform GTN assumptions

Key Highlights

• Developed a robust model to enhance the forecasting process and manage multiple products and assumptions surrounding them
• Successfully partnered with the client to assist in transitioning their forecast process for efficiently executing short-term and long-range forecast cycles

Impact

• Enabled the client to visualize the impact of business events using the provided functionality
• Decluttered and simplified the repetitive forecast process. Reduced the forecast turnaround time by 80%
• Framework to extract an executive-level summary from the model itself enabled the client to work with multiple stakeholders