Go-To-Market Model

Detailed patient-journey tracking and Forecasting for rare disease therapy

A specialty pharmaceutical company was planning to launch an oral prescription medication for the treatment of seizures associated with a rare pediatric disease. The market landscape included several non-pharmacological therapies and non-targeted drugs.

Viscadia was asked to design and build a go-to-market forecasting model to track patient journeys and project demand weekly.

Challenge

Complex Fulfillment Process

• Modeling several steps in the patient fulfillment funnel of a small patient population, including REMS, echocardiogram assessments, and payer benefit verification

Lack of History

• Formulating forecasting KPIs reflective of the entire population from a small sample size
• Building confidence on key forecast drivers

Pandemic impact

• Re-assessing pipeline forecast after product launch amid the COVID-19 pandemic
• Refining patient fulfillment assumptions to adjust for the impact of restrictions due to the pandemic

Approach

Patient Fulfillment Pathway Mapping

• Conducted detailed stakeholder discussions to understand and define various potential patient journey pathways

Queue Conversion Modeling

• Tracked the patient acquisition forecast in the model by incorporating average patient-journey time across different pathways

Short and Long-Term Patient Forecasting

• Assessed therapy-area nuances, patient segments, clinical and commercial drivers of product usage, and estimated both near- and long-term KPIs

Variance Analysis

• Triangulated forecasts against actual weekly data, refined forecast assumptions, and facilitated monthly and quarterly forecast updates

Cross-Functional Insights and Planning

• Mapped the forecast model back to HCP segments for targeting, creating guidance for sales teams, and optimizing patient access efforts

Outcome

End Deliverables

• Viscadia Patient Diagnostics Dashboard (Refreshed monthly)
• Viscadia Regional Forecast Models (Refreshed weekly)

Key Highlights

• Enabled leadership to track and incorporate trends from the actual patient data into forecast planning and goal setting
• Facilitated patient analytics to answer post-launch business questions faced by C-Suite leadership for board meetings and earnings calls
• Helped commercial leaders quantitatively simulate what-if scenarios to assess market trends during COVID-19

Impact

• The forecast model enabled comprehensive, intuitive evaluation of key performance indicators and helped drive stakeholder decision-making
• Established Viscadia’s forecast platform as a go-to tool for simulating forecast scenarios by senior leadership
• Allowed the commercial team to detect bottlenecks in the patient fulfillment process in real time