Incorporating Risk in Early-Stage Forecasts

Forecasting for products early in clinical development is challenging. Uncertain future clinical performance and environmental risk factors (competitive, regulatory, pricing, and market access) make it more difficult to develop product forecasts. In these situations, rather than focusing on point forecasts, communicating the range of possible forecast outcomes and their likelihoods provides a more useful foundation for decision-making. In this webinar, we outlined approaches for incorporating risk in early-stage forecasts.

Key Takeaways

• New machine learning tools for quantifying clinical uncertainty
• Primary research methods to fill information gaps for novel molecules and market situations
• Strategies for effectively communicating forecast risk to internal stakeholders