Designing a specialized forecast model for pain management portfolio
An upcoming specialty pharmaceutical firm was looking to elevate its forecasting infrastructure for its pain management portfolio.
Viscadia designed and built a statistical trend-based forecast platform for predicting demand across different channels. While accounting for market, product or channel level event impacts. Furthermore, it granted the capability to download essential summaries and execute comprehensive calculations quickly.
A comprehensive inline model that incorporates the synergistic effect of product/market and contracting events.
CHALLENGES
Data reconciliation
- Utilizing multiple sources and flavors of data to prepare the repository for the baseline trend forecast
- Lack of unified datasets to bridge payer and PBM accounts to pertinent product-contract-level mapping
Trend forecasting
- Incorporating an integrated stand-alone data trending tool within the primary model
- Reducing the clutter around using multiple spreadsheets every time refreshing the forecast
Lack of forecast process
- Process to compare forecasts across Quarterly cycles to ascertain change drivers
- Unified solution to assist in both short-term and long-term forecasts for business planning
APPROACH
Data triangulation
- Triangulated demand, ex-factory and distributor data to prepare inputs for trending. Automated data processing to build data pipeline and adjust for capture rates
Integrating trending tool
- Designed an integrated and robust statistical palette to generate baseline forecast as part of the inline model, embedding it within the primary framework
Comparison cycles for LBE
- Built in modular fashion to visualize and draw comparison across different forecast versions. Adjunct waterfall views to assist in compartmentalizing the deviation
Automation capabilities
- Devised user-friendly automation in the model to enhance model usability and accessibility while not compromising the transparency of the flow
Event modelling
- Developed a comprehensive module to weigh in impact of key events for market, product and contracting events and assimilated it within the model
OUTCOMES
End deliverables
- Pain Management Portfolio Forecast Model
- Short-term and Long-term forecasts (for better planning)
- Infrastructure to process and crunch rebates data for using it within the primary framework for informing GTN assumptions
Key highlights
- Developed a robust model to enhance forecasting process and manage multiple products and assumptions pertaining around them.
- Successfully partnered with the client to assist in transitioning their forecast process, for efficiently executing short-term and long-range forecast cycles
Impact
- Enabled the client to visualize the impact of business events using the provided functionality
- Decluttered and simplifying the repetitive forecast process. Reduced the forecast turn around time by 80%
- Framework to extract executive-level summary from the model itself, enabled the client to work with multiple stakeholders
