Detailed patient-journey tracking and Forecasting for rare disease therapy
A specialty pharmaceutical company was planning to launch an oral prescription medication for treatment of seizures associated with a rare pediatric disease. The market landscape included several non-pharmacological therapies and non-targeted drugs.
Viscadia was asked to design and build a go-to-market forecasting model for tracking patient journeys and projecting demand on a weekly basis.
Helped the client predict patient journey and product demand for a therapy in a $1B rare diseases market
CHALLENGES
Complex fulfillment process
- Modeling several steps in the patient fulfillment funnel of a small patient population including REMS, echocardiogram assessments, and payer benefit verification
Lack of history
- Formulating forecasting KPIs reflective of the entire population from a small sample size
- Building confidence on key forecast drivers
Pandemic impact
- Re-assessing pipeline forecast after product launch amid COVID-19 pandemic
- Refining patient fulfilment assumptions to adjust for the impact of restrictions due to the pandemic
APPROACH
Patient fulfillment pathway mapping
- Conducted detailed stakeholder discussions to understand and define various potential patient journey pathways
Queue conversion modeling
- Tracked the patient acquisition forecast in the model by incorporating average patient-journey time across different pathways
Short and long-term patient forecasting
- Assessed therapy-area nuances, patient segments, clinical and commercial drivers of product usage, and estimated both near- and long-term KPIs
Variance analysis
- Triangulated forecasts against actual weekly data, refined forecast assumptions and facilitated monthly and quarterly forecast updates
Cross-functional insights and planning
- Mapped the forecast model back to HCP segments for targeting, creating guidance for sales teams and optimizing patient access efforts
OUTCOMES
End deliverables
- ViscadiaPatient Diagnostics Dashboard (Refreshed monthly)
- Viscadia Regional Forecast Models (Refreshed weekly)
Key highlights
- Enabled leadership to track and incorporate trends from the actual patient data into forecast planning and goal setting
- Facilitated patient analytics to answer post-launch business questions faced by C-Suite leadership for board meetings and earnings calls
- Helped commercial leaders quantitatively simulate what-if scenarios to assess market trends during COVID-19
Impact
- The forecast model enabled comprehensive and intuitive evaluation of key performance indicators and helped drive stakeholder decisions
- Established Viscadia’s forecast platform as a go-to tool for simulating forecast scenarios by senior leadership
- Allowed the commercial team to detect bottlenecks in the patient fulfillment process in real time
