Building forecasting capabilities for a complex oncology patient flow
A global biotechnology company wanted to forecastmarket potential for their oral TKI inhibitor of the HER2 protein, which had been approved for oncology indication for all major markets.
Viscadia was asked to design and build an epidemiology-based patient flow model to construct a market landscape and assess product potential across 22 different markets around the world, while also incorporating regional nuances specific to several key markets.
Streamlined forecasting processes for a global oncology asset with ~$1.5B total revenue spread across 22 geographies
CHALLENGES
Complex treatment paradigm
- Tracking patients across multiple lines of therapy
- Segmenting eligible patients based on treatment history
- Incorporating nuances critical to oncology forecasting such as participation in clinical trials, patient warehousing, and bolus patient switching
Lack of global forecasting framework
- Regional stakeholders leveraged independent forecasting processes leading to multiple disconnected forecasting narratives
- Incorporating region-specific nuances such as affordability, patient access, seasonality, and differential SKU size
Go-to-market modeling
- Reconciling forecast with actual demand units post-launch
- Triangulating demand forecast with the account level, bottoms up forecast
APPROACH
Patient flow model
- Designed and built a comprehensive patient flow forecast model, allowing in-depth tracking of patient metrics (such as naïve and experienced patients, and more) across multiple lines of therapy
Regional forecast harmonization
- Engaged with stakeholders to understand strategic imperatives and developed a forecasting framework that could scale across geographies
Global forecast platform
- Automated the aggregation of 22 regional models with the global forecast to facilitate decision making at headquarters
Refining forecast assumptions
- Performed deep-dives and set up analytical processes to continuously refine key forecasting assumptions, including projections for SKU-level demand and bolus patients
Scenario planning and optimization
- Equipped the regional and global models with the functionality to simulate what-if scenarios, review KPIs, and assess key forecast drivers
OUTCOMES
End deliverables
- Viscadia Global Forecast Model (For headquarters)
- Viscadia Regional Forecast Models (For individual countries)
- Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Forecasts (For corporate planning)
Key highlights
- Streamlined the global forecasting process through deep collaboration
- Developed new forecasting infrastructure and facilitated stakeholder onboarding
- Successfully partnered with the client to faciliate the budgeting and corporate planning process
- Advised the client for cross-functional business needs including sales force target optimization and inventory planning
Impact
- The forecast model enabled comprehensive and intuitive evaluation of key performance indicators and helped drive stakeholder decisions
- Established an end-to-end forecasting process which eventually defined best practices across multiple pipeline and on-market assets
- Viscadia was chosen as an overarching partner to supervise forecast data reporting, corporate planning and commercial analytics
