Global launch forecast planning for an oncology asset
A large global pharmaceutical company wanted to better understand the product potential of a HER3 directed ADC for the treatment of patients with metastatic NSCLC
Viscadia was tasked with designing and building custom forecast platforms and processes catering to the U.S., EU5, Japan, and China to support cross-functional stakeholder objectives leading up to its launch
Successfully established robust forecast capabilities across regions and enabled smooth launch forecast planning
CHALLENGES
Complex patient segmentation based on treatment history
- Tracking patients across multiple lines of therapy
- Segmenting eligible patients based on treatment history and availability of inputs
- Mapping patient opportunity based on patient journey across the lines of therapy
Lack of standard forecast model and process across regions
- Different forecasting processes across geographies
- Multiple disconnected forecast narratives at the regional and global HQ level
- Incorporating region-specific nuances such as pricing and patient access
Growing need for a comprehensive forecast storyboard
- Simulating several what if forecast scenarios across geographies
- Consolidating forecast models’ regions to form a clean forecast storyboard
APPROACH
Gap analysis
- Conducted in-depth interviews with global and regional stakeholders.
- Audited literature and deep dived into existing forecast models
Patient journey and segmentation
- Designed patient segments to account for patient’s treatment choice in each line of therapy.
- Aligned treatment eligibility and patient opportunity segments
Regional forecasting nuances
- Collaborated with stakeholders to incorporate regional nuances into the forecast model flow
- Devised developed a comprehensive forecasting framework that could scale across regions
Market share modeling and event impact
- Designed market share modeling framework by calibrating inputs from the physician research
- Modeled event impact due to competitor launches at the segment level
Pipeline forecast model and global forecast aggregator
- Design and built patient flow forecast models for each region
- Built a global forecast model aggregator for the headquarters to assimilate forecasts from different regions
Forecast analytics and storyboards
- Designed clear, comprehensive and actionable forecast summaries for executive decision making
- Automated the workflow of consolidating regional forecast scenarios into a single storyboard
OUTCOMES
End deliverables
- Viscadia Global Forecast Model (For headquarters)
- Viscadia Regional Forecast Models (For individual countries)
- Different aggregator models for EU and Global teams
- User guide for stakeholder training
Key highlights
- Streamlined the global forecasting process through deep collaboration
- Established new forecasting infrastructure and facilitated stakeholder onboarding
- Led forecast stakeholders from 8 global regions towards forecasting best practices
- Conducted live workshops to drive adoption and support for new forecasting platform
Impact
- Successfully established robust forecast capabilities across regions and enabled smooth launch forecast planning
- Patient segmentation approach built in the project set the tone for future demand studies
- A standardized framework across geographies equipped the headquarter leadership to go to market with more forecasting confidence
