Global demand study for an early-stage oncology treatment in a high unmet need category
A global pharmaceutical company wanted to understand the market potential for a new therapy in a highly competitive oncology space. Viscadia was asked to design and conduct an early-stage demand study in key global markets to support an updated forecast and a go/no-go decision regarding further clinical development.
Demand study and updated forecast supported further clinical development for the asset.
CHALLENGES
Significant clinical uncertainty
- Demonstrating clinical benefit vs SOC has been difficult, as illustrated by several recent clinical trial failures in Phase II and Phase III.
Crowded market with several new competitors
- Large number of potential entrants incorporating various new treatment modalities.
- Timing and order of entry may limit market potential for later entrants differentiation vs. established therapies.
Strategic importance
- Category with a large patient population and high unmet need in second and later lines of treatment.
APPROACH
Product Conjoint Design
- For eligible patients, investigating sensitivity of results to variations in clinical performance for new products.
Primary Markets Research
- N=400 online interviews conducted across key geographies in the US, EU, and Japan. For eligible patients, investigating sensitivity of results to variations in clinical performance for new products.
- N=20 follow-up qualitative interviews to deep-dive into the why’s underlying oncologists’ prescribing decisions.
Forecast Update
- Incorporated demand study outcomes to update the revenue projections for the treatment under consideration.
Post-Survey Calibration
- Ensured shares accurately reflected current market dynamics by adjusting for HCP overstatement in anticipated prescribing.
Developed forecast platform
- Customized platform for the product opportunity that allowed for dynamic, comprehensive evaluation of key performance drivers, and enabled scenario comparison and contrasting
OUTCOMES
End deliverables
- Global PowerPoint report highlighting key analyses and insights for each geography
- Excel-based market simulator allowed the client to conduct sensitivity analyses, estimate product attribute importance scores, and investigate “what-if” scenarios for key patient segments and market scenarios.
- Updated global forecast.
Key highlights
- Simultaneous management of the demand study and forecast model ensured synergy, enhancing study completeness and facilitating seamless integration of outcomes into the forecast framework.
- Enabled timely forecast updates to integrate into the long-range plan, driving pivotal corporate strategy decisions.
Impact
- Facilitated the leadership team in presenting a compelling case for continuing clinical development to executives and investors.
- Empowered leadership to assess returns and strategically choose between independent pursuit or strategic partnership for the asset.
