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Case Studies

Pipeline forecast

Global model for oncology condition with a complex patient flow

A large global pharmaceutical company wanted to better understand the product potential of a late-stage, highly targeted pipeline drug candidate for immunotherapy. This drug was indicated for a complex, underserved therapeutic condition.

Viscadia was asked to design and build a custom forecast model spanning all global regions and accommodating key therapeutic and commercial drivers of product performance.

Client gained unprecedented buy-in from 15 regional counterparts and global HQ

Complex patient
flow and treatment paradigm
  • Multiple indications and lines of therapy constituting an interlinked treatment paradigm, with regional variations in physician preferences and demographic nuances
Staggered launches,
Non-promoted usage
  • Underserved therapy area combined with multiple indications and staggered launches, leading to significant potential in non-promoted usage
stakeholder management
  • Regional stakeholders from 15 participating geographies
  • Multiple third-party vendor/partners conducting supporting research
  • Senior management at global HQ responsible for global forecast
Executed in-depth
therapy-area research

Assessed therapy-area nuances, clinical and commercial drivers of product usage, and shift in treatment paradigms driven by imminent pipeline approvals

analogue research

Identified and evaluated uptake performances of recent key launches to drive uptake assumptions

Supported design of
primary market research (PMR)

Identified relevant analogues to develop a perspective on pricing and implications of the ensuing access constraints on product uptake

Identified and formalized post-launch dynamics

Worked with key stakeholders to define dynamics such as non-promoted usage, combo therapy and competitor events

Developed forecast platform

Customized platform for the product opportunity that allowed for dynamic, comprehensive evaluation of key performance drivers, and enabled scenario comparison and contrasting

End deliverables
  • Standard patient flow design harmonizing variations and commonalities in forecasting approach across global regions
  • Forecast platform with a comprehensive set of output views and summaries addressing cross-functional stakeholders
  • Efficient interface to facilitate easy aggregation of forecast results across global regions
  • Geography-specific thought leadership on prioritizing action plan leading up to launch
Key highlights
  • Successfully collaborated and worked harmoniously alongside multiple third-party vendors
  • Delivered support and leadership to stakeholders from 15 global regions across multiple time zones
  • Conducted live workshops to drive adoption and support for new forecasting platform among multiple stakeholders
  • U.S. leadership gained unprecedented buy-in from all regional counterparts and Global HQ on asset potential
  • Client successfully moved the asset to Phase III of clinical trials following global opportunity assessment
  • Established an end-to-end forecasting process which eventually defined best practices across multiple pipeline assets