Case Studies

PIPELINE FORECAST

Global model for oncology condition with a complex patient flow

A large global pharmaceutical company wanted to better understand the product potential of a late-stage, highly targeted pipeline drug candidate for immunotherapy. This drug was indicated for a complex, underserved therapeutic condition.

Viscadia was asked to design and build a custom forecast model spanning all global regions and accommodating key therapeutic and commercial drivers of product performance.

Client gained unprecedented buy-in from 15 regional counterparts and global HQ

CHALLENGES

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Complex patient flow and treatment paradigm

  • Multiple indications and lines of therapy constituting an interlinked treatment paradigm, with regional variations in physician preferences and demographic nuances
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Staggered launches,Non-promoted usage

  • Underserved therapy area combined with multiple indications and staggered launches, leading to significant potential in non-promoted usage
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Cross-functional stakeholder management

  • Regional stakeholders from 15 participating geographies
  • Multiple third-party vendor/partners conducting supporting research
  • Senior management at global HQ responsible for global forecast

APPROACH

Executed in-depth therapy-area research

  • Assessed therapy-area nuances, clinical and commercial drivers of product usage, and shift in treatment paradigms driven by imminent pipeline approvals

Conducted analogue research

  • Identified and evaluated uptake performances of recent key launches to drive uptake assumptions

Supported design of primary market research (PMR)

  • Identified relevant analogues to develop a perspective on pricing and implications of the ensuing access constraints on product uptake

Developed forecast platform

  • Customized platform for the product opportunity that allowed for dynamic, comprehensive evaluation of key performance drivers, and enabled scenario comparison and contrasting

OUTCOMES

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End deliverables

  • Standard patient flow design harmonizing variations and commonalities in forecasting approach across global regions
  • Forecast platform with a comprehensive set of output views and summaries addressing cross-functional stakeholders
  • Efficient interface to facilitate easy aggregation of forecast results across global regions
  • Geography-specific thought leadership on prioritizing action plan leading up to launch
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Key highlights

  • Successfully collaborated and worked harmoniously alongside multiple third-party vendors
  • Delivered support and leadership to stakeholders from 15 global regions across multiple time zones
  • Conducted live workshops to drive adoption and support for new forecasting platform among multiple stakeholders
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Impact

  • U.S. leadership gained unprecedented buy-in from all regional counterparts and Global HQ on asset potential
  • Client successfully moved the asset to Phase III of clinical trials following global opportunity assessment
  • Established an end-to-end forecasting process which eventually defined best practices across multiple pipeline assets
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