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Case Studies

Acquisition Opportunity

Rapid forecast delivery for potential late-stage pipeline acquisition

A specialty pharmaceutical company wanted to evaluate the potential of a late-stage
pipeline oral drug. The drug candidate had an attractive target product profile but was launching into a significantly genericized market.

Viscadia was asked to design and build a custom forecast model to clearly identify the risks and opportunities facing both the product and the wider market.

Delivered complete, in-depth commercial assessment in 25 days

CHALLENGES
Current market
landscape
  • Challenges with promotional effectiveness and physician adoption, partly driven by complex diagnosis patterns
Pricing and
access
  • Potentially crucial unanswered questions regarding patient and payer acceptance — primarily due to price differential versus the generic-heavy market median
Accelerated
timeline
  • Had one month to complete the project
  • Data room due diligenc
  • Primary, secondary, pricing, and payer research
  • Custom forecast model and executive presentation with a range of scenarios to support bid deliberations
APPROACH
Executed secondary market research and data room diligence
Assessed market landscape, drivers of drug selection, patient flow, reaction to the target product profile, and impact of pricing and access on product acceptance
Conducted in-depth primary market research (PMR)

Qualitative IDIs: KOLS, N=4; Practitioners, N=12; Payers, N=4

Quantitative Research: Practitioners, N=100; Payers, N=20

Analogue research for pricing and uptake

Identified relevant analogues to develop a perspective on pricing and implications of the ensuing access constraints on product uptake

Established a baseline view

Evaluated near-term future of the overall market, drawing  on inputs from KOLs, practitioners and payers, and their  positioning/ projected uptake for the product opportunity

Developed forecast platform
Customized platform for the product opportunity, allowing for dynamic, comprehensive evaluation of key performance drivers and enabling scenario comparison and contrasting
OUTCOMES
End deliverables
  • Forecast platform with a comprehensive set of output views and summaries addressing cross-functional stakeholders
  • User manual providing extensive documentation of model design and operation to facilitate easy knowledge transfer
  • Executive slides to facilitate quarterly LE discussions, generated by an automated module within the model
Key highlights
  • Reduced the MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) by nearly 50% in actual vs. forecast for the new model compared to the existing model
  • Dynamically modeled for five major market events occurring at different times in the forecast horizon
  • Successfully enabled the forecast team to tie the revenue forecast to weekly patient enrollment targets for the sales team
Impact
  • Reduced workflow for quarterly LE from ~40 hours to ~8 hours
  • New model served as the base platform for future Life Cycle Management (LCM) strategy scenario-planning exercises
  • Client asked Viscadia to design and build a new model for another product within the same franchise